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Whilst bullionmark is not against the use of bank vaults or bank safety deposit boxes for gold and silver storage you should be aware of some of the risks.

1. Bank failure - systemic risk in the banking system is high and you need to consider how your gold can be removed should your bank close.

2. Government access - it is little known but governments in most countries have the right to access safety deposit box contents

3. Confiscation - In the 1930's the US government forced banks to open safety deposit boxes and confiscated gold contents.

4. Private vaults - still have some of the government access issues but the process is much more difficult and may give you time to remove the contents prior to a warrant. depending on your relationship, you may even get an early warning from your provider. Most of the wealthiest families in the world use private vaulting solutions becuase they are outside the banking system. In most cases private vault techology and security rating is far superior to a bank. However the private service is more expensive.

Gold and silver are the only assets that are no one elses liability and sit completely outside the financial system. Think very carefully before you put your bedrock asset in the hands of those who have traditionally been the yellow metals worst enemy.

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Despite being incredibly bullish on gold & silver in the medium to long term, I believe significant short term price risk exists due to central bank manipulation of the US dollar. With the US bailout plan likely to pass congress this week, market manipulating central banks will be in full force making it appear as though all is well. That means rising stock markets and a strong US dollar. I caution anyone from making big investment bets on gold in the near term and suspect better entry prices after US elections. If gold prices do continue to rise into November be very worried, it spells big troubles and soon.

The long term case for gold (& even more so silver) just continues to build with every rescue plan, bailout, shotgun merger, liquidity injection, rule change and rate cut.

I wonder who is keeping score of the muppets at the US Treasury and federal reserve?

Aug07 – Northern Rock isolated incident - subprime crisis is contained time to buy financials
Mar08 – Bear Stearns was the problem, now all is fine Fannie/Freddie well capitalised – buy financials
Jul08 – Fannie Mae /Freddie signal end to crisis – buy financials
Aug08 – Indymac bank nothing to worry about banks are safe
Sep08 – Lehman Brothers failure needed to cleanse market
Sep08 – Merryl Lynch goes bust – shotgun marriage to Bank of America financial system safe
Sep08 – Next day AIG bailed by Govt but all is fine
Sep08 – Next day run on money market funds in US & Asia syndicated global liquidity all will be fine now
Sep08 – Next day run on Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs – Buffet steps in with $5bill. Evidently Buffets $5b will save system!!
Sep08 – Next day Washington Mutual goes under
Sep08 – Fed & US Treasury force Bush to make speech about the dire position of the financial system
Sep08 – Fed & US Treasury put gun to congress and ask for min $700b (but really open ended check) to fix all our problems.

Believe its fixed? No way. This is a $90 trillion, yes thats trillion dollar problem. They are pissing in the ocean. We are only at the end of the beginning
Next problems credit default swaps (ie insurance on company debt), credit cards, auto loans etc. All the muppets have achieved to date is short term stabilisation in ever diminishing time periods. The market wants to unwind all this excessive debt but the central bankers must keep the credit flowing to survive.

Remember central banks mission is to protect the banks and the system not people.

Governments and central banks have only two choices here:

  1. Let the system implode on itself causing an immediate depression magnitudes greater than the 1930's
  2. Print money to debase currencies, hyperinflating away debt Zimbabwe style.

Unfortunately both end in social and economic collapse but at least the latter gives a bit more time and can be blamed on other factors. Hyperinflation has been the preferred path of governments for hundreds of years this time will be no different. Except this time its global.

The coming weeks will provide an opportunity to unload any toxic financial stocks you may own. Speak to your financial advisor about reweighting your portfolio mix more into hard assets. Spread your cash around in top tier banks (not second tier). Try not to exceed govt guaranteed $20K in one account. Bring forward any necessary large purchases as prices are going to dramatically increase on everything you need (except houses)
We are living in extraordinary times, please make an effort to improve your understanding of issues beyond the propaganda supported by mainstream media.

Remember in the middle of difficulty lies opportunity, but only for those who are well prepared.

You still have plenty of time so start preparing now.

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by Johnny Silver Bear Silver Bear Cafe


As the editor of the Silver Bear Cafe , I try to focus on the ramifications of world events. I try to understand how what's going on now will affect your pocketbook next week, next month, next year. It is my sole intent to help you consider the possibilities which will, in turn, help you prepare for your financial future.
One of the most important aspects of your financial survival concerns your understanding of the nature of money. If you believe that precious metals do not constitute "money", you may have been misled. If you have been misled, who misled you? Why? And "What's wrong with this picture"?
What is money? The whole point of money is suppose to be the provision of a convenient and liquid medium that can be exchanged for less liquid value. It is a go between. One strives to accumulate money so it can be exchanged for something else.
In our illustrious history, we humans have tried everything from salt to sardines as a medium of exchange, but nothing has seemed to work as well as gold and silver. A person bringing a relatively illiquid item to market could swap it for gold or silver, secure in the knowledge that the metal would retain its value for as long as he chose to hold it and would be accepted as payment for anything he wanted when he chose to spend it.
The condition that your gold and silver will retain its value for as long as you chose to hold it is the most valuable characteristic of the "barbarous relics", and provides the fodder for me to champion the cause of precious metals ownership, and for my ensuing attack on the debasement of the American dollar.
Man has an innate desire to obtain and own gold and silver. That we seek to possess precious metals seems as naturally entrenched in our collective psychic as any other instinct. The possession of wealth, in the form of gold and silver, has always represented power and control. There is nothing wrong or unnatural to desire power and control. The power to control one's destiny through the accumulation of wealth is not only natural, it is healthy. This natural desire is the basis of our capitalistic system. The gold standard, as prescribed by our Constitution, is "the Law" that insures that the "power and control" that is provided by wealth, cannot be abused. Those who would seek to abuse the power of wealth would consequently have to break "the Law." "The Law" has been broken.
In 1792 the U. S. Coinage Act was passed by Congress. It invoked the death penalty for anyone debasing money and provided for a U.S. Mint where silver dollars were coined along with gold coins beginning in 1794. The text of Coinage Act of 1792 states: “The Dollar or Unit shall be of the value of a Spanish milled dollar as the same is now current,” that is, running in the market, “to wit, three hundred and seventy-one and one-quarter grains of silver.”
To repeat, A“dollar” is a silver coin containing three hundred and seventy-one and one-quarter grains of silver — and it cannot be changed by constitutional amendment, definitionally, any more than the term “year” can.
Even at the current suppressed value of silver, ($17.06/troy ounce), a "dollar is worth $14.00. The fact that a currently circulated Federal Reserve Note of a "One Dollar" denomination is not worth $14.00 is evidence that a radical debasing of money has occurred sometime in the past and begs the questions: Who was responsible for the debasement, why did "we the people" allow the debasement to occur, and why weren't those responsible prosecuted?
Fiat money, (money not backed by anything), was something so abhorrent to our Founding Fathers that they didn't even discuss it as an option. The Constitutional gold standard provided that the Country's citizens could not be robbed by means of inflation. An interesting original draft by the Founders would have allowed for "bills of credit", or paper money but that was struck out. It seems that during the Revolutionary War, when paper money had been issued, a promise to back the notes for gold or silver was a "no confidence" disaster, causing counterfeiting by the British and other forms of fraud.
The end result were notes of no value, plummeting to less than a penny per dollar. Sound familiar? This is why the Founding Fathers decided to mint only gold and silver coins as "money." They provided for a U.S. Mint where silver dollars were coined along with gold coins beginning in 1794. The mint was intended to provide a service for "We the People", a facility where we could bring our precious metals, aquired by panning or mining or barter, have the metals assayed, minted and returned to us.
" The people of the states empower the Congress to coin money and regulate the value thereof and also of foreign coins." From Article I.8.5
This provision in the U.S. Constitution gave Congress the Right to produce a national coin, set the weight, fineness, and value. Also, Congress could specify the value of a foreign coin in terms of the national coin of the United States.
" No state shall ...coin money; emit bills of credit; or make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts." From Article I.10.1
It is clear from this provision that the State's could not create their own coin nor could they make anything but the gold and silver coins issued by Congress as legal tender for the payments of debt. This is a Constitutionally mandated gold standard.
No further paper money was issued by the U. S. Government for over eighty years. The Founders did allow, however, private banks to act as depositories for the United States and to collect taxes. People were issued redeemable bank notes which circulated as currency. Alexander Hamilton was initially responsible for the "National Banking System". Unfortunately, he realized his error in promoting this type of banking too late, and by the end of the Civil War there were thousands of banks issuing thousands of different kinds of bank notes.
In 1862, during the "War for Southern Independence", Lincoln radically debased the currency by having millions of "greenbacks" printed so he could pay for the "trappings of combat" needed for his "sacking of the South". (see death penalty above)
In 1872, Supreme Court Justice Stephen Field, aware of the rages of inflation, attempted to block an unconstitutional overextension of powers by the Bank of the United States. He wrote:
“The arguments in favor of the constitutionality of legal tender paper currency tend directly to break down the barriers which separate a government of limited powers from a government resting in the unrestrained will of Congress. Those limitations must be preserved, or our government will inevitably drift from the system established by our Fathers into a vast, centralized, and consolidated government.”
Drift, it did, and is now moored on the precipice of the economic abyss.
In 1878, in a rare state of clarity, Congress began to redeem "greenbacks" into gold which put the United States back on the gold standard until 1933.
It was well known amongst intelligent politicians, (who have, apparently, remained in the minority), that the gold standard protected citizens against the controlling tendencies of the government by offering an absolute hedge against the depreciation or devaluation of the currency. Gold provided an agent of maintenance and liquidity within and beyond national borders. Above all, it raised a mighty barrier against authoritarian interferences through the manipulation of the economic markets. Within the constraints imposed by the gold standard, America's economy remained relatively healthy until 1913.
On December 23, 1913, the U.S. Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, placing control of this nation's money into the hands of a private corporation. This corporation was made up entirely of bankers. Calling itself the Federal Reserve, so as to seem official, it replaced the national bank system. Treasury notes were recalled and Federal Reserve notes were issued with a promise to redeem them in gold on demand. The forces behind the Federal Reserve, (American and Western European banking interests), remained tethered by the limits imposed by the gold standard, but this would soon change.
In 1920, the 66th Congress passed the Independent Treasury Act.
In 1921, the United States Congress abolished the U.S. Treasury, and, as a result, all of our country's bullion and all other instruments of value, ( i.e...moneys in trust funds and other special funds that had been kept in U.S. Treasury offices and vaults), were systematically transferred to the coffers of a private corporation!
From 1913, until 1933, under the authority of the U.S. Congress, the Federal Reserve held control of all of our country's gold. They then proceeded to loan us back our gold, at interest. We paid interest for the use of our own gold! What's wrong with this picture? What could have incited our Senators and Representatives to allow that to happen? In order to keep up with the ever rising debt service, we borrowed more of our own gold. We kept borrowing more and more of our own gold to pay more and more interest, until all the gold was gone. At that point, the country went bankrupt. Guess what happened next.
The bankers foreclosed on America. I know what you're thinking. Me too.
On March 9, 1933, the U.S. declared bankruptcy, as expressed in President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Executive Orders 6073, 6102, 6111, and 6260.
On April 5th, 1933, one month after his inauguration, President Roosevelt declared a National Emergency that made it unlawful for any citizen of the United States to own gold, (see death penalty above), and "unconstitutionally" ordered all gold coins, gold bullion, and gold certificates to be turned into the Federal Reserve banks by May 1st under the threat of imprisonment and fines. This was technically, a national confiscation of gold and silver. This unlawful precedent set by Roosevelt would eventually lead us to the catastrophic situation we find ourselves in today.
Our bankrupt nation went into receivership and was reorganized in favor of it's creditor and new owners, a private corporation of international bankers. (Since 1933, what is called the "United States Government" has been a privately owned corporation, and the property of the Federal Reserve / International Monetary Fund.)
Without a word of truth to the American people, all our good faith and credit was pledged as the surety for the debt by the same slime ball Congressmen who created the mechanism that allowed it to occur.
Those Congressmen, knew such "De Facto Transitions" were unlawful and unauthorized, but were mysteriously coerced into sanctioning, implementing, and enforcing the complete debauchment of our monetary system, and the resulting changes in all aspects of government, society, and industry in the United States of America.
From the onset of the Federal Reserve, fractional reserve bankers set out to win the war of misinformation. They did this, in part, by attempting to advance the pseudo tenets of Keynesianism, monetarism, and supply-side economics.
John Maynard Keynes, although a great friend of the bankers, was probably the most heinous influence on freedom, liberty, and the free market in the 20th century. He was a Fabian socialist and a Globalist, (is that redundant?), who provided an intellectual cover for inflationism. He is best known for authoring bogus economic theories, undermining Western values and philosophy, and providing a floor plan whereby the banksters could more easily deceive the people. It was Keynes who coined the phrase, “barbarous relic” in reference to gold. It was Keynes who desecrated the U.S. Constitution with almost every breath.
"Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
During the first half of the 20th century, each of four world leaders did the exact same thing within ninety days of their ascension to power. Each made it illegal for the citizens of their respective countries to own gold. Those leaders were: Mao, Stalin, Hitler, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. All four were acutely aware of the restrictions that a gold standard imposed on their abilities to wage war.
The bankers hate gold as money for the same reason. Gold as money acts as a barrier to the expansion of credit money. By pandering the lure of unlimited credit, the banksters went about recruiting politicians through out the world. The opportunity to wage war on borrowed money turned out to be irresistible to Empire. Wars have always been very important to the banking cartels. They are very expensive. Time and time again, through loans to governments, the cartels have provided the funding for great conflicts. Imagine, being able to go to war with unlimited funds. Better yet, imagine the inability to go to war because of the lack of unlimited funds. The temptation extended to the power mongers was too great. The credit was made available with a single catch. The gist of the pitch went something like this:
"Sure we'll loan you all the money you want, on the condition that you enact laws making all the citizens of your individual countries responsible for the interest payments, through taxation"
One by one the leaders of every government on earth sold out, and agreed to demonetize gold, thereby allowing the continued power grab of the banking cartels through the issuance debt based currency. The result has been the methodical fleecing of the general population through the debasing of the dollar by 97%. (see death penalty above)
On May 22nd, 1933, Congress enacted a law, against Constitutional mandate, declaring all coin and currencies then in circulation to be legal tender, dollar for dollar, as if they were gold. The President was unconstitutionally empowered to reduce the gold content to the dollar up to 50 percent. (see death penalty above)
On June 5th, 1933, Congress stabbed the gold standard out of existence by enacting a joint resolution (48 Stat. 112), that all gold clauses in contracts were outlawed and no one could legally demand gold in payment for any obligation due to him. (see death penalty above)
On January 30th, 1934, the Gold Reserve Act was passed, giving the Federal Reserve title to all the gold which had been collected. This act also changed the value/price of gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce, which meant that all of the silver certificates the people had recently received for their gold now were worth 40 percent less. (see death penalty above)
On January 31st, 1934, after President Roosevelt fixed the dollar at 15 and 5/21 grains standard to gold. Russia and the central banks of Europe were very excited and began buying up gold in huge quantities. This planned redistribution of our country's wealth was one of the most important objectives of the Globalist's agenda. Thus a dual monetary system began which offered the gold standard for foreigners and Federal Reserve notes for Americans. (see death penalty above)
Between 1934 to 1963 all Federal Reserve notes issued had a promised to pay, or to be redeemed in "lawful money." Over a short period of time the wording on the Federal Reserve notes began to change until there was no redemption in silver promised. This was done slowly enough that the people didn't see it coming. (see death penalty above)
On November 2nd, 1963, new Federal Reserve notes with no promise to pay in "lawful money" was released. No guarantees, no value. (see death penalty above)
In 1965 silver in coins were reduced to 40 percent by President Lyndon Johnson's authorization. (see death penalty above)
President Lyndon Johnson issued a proclamation on June 24, 1968, that all Federal Reserve Silver Certificates were merely fiat legal tender and could not be redeemed in silver. (see death penalty above)
On December 31, 1970, President Richard Nixon signed into law an amendment to the Bank Holding Company Act, which, among other things, authorized the treasury to totally debase coins to a worthless value in non precious metal. (see death penalty above)
"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day. But a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly proves a deliberate systematic plan of reducing us to slavery." - Thomas Jefferson
Since the seventies, the unfettered issuance of debt money has continued to debase our currency more rapidly than ever before. In the last three years, the debasement has accelerated exponentially.
"The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists (government bureaucrats) to use the banking system as an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan
The world governments continue to babble that tired Keynesian rhetoric insisting that gold and silver have become obsolete, relics of the past. Yet in the 4th Quarter of 2006 global gold and silver demand was the highest on record, and, some of the world's largest investors are presently taking major positions in precious metals.
The cartel wants economic growth, lots of borrowers, and lots of opportunities to lend newly created funny money at interest. You can't blame them for wanting that. If I could print up all the funny money I wanted and could then lend it out at interest, I'd be happy too. That is, I would be happy to lend it if I didn't have a soul. The ravages of inflation have heretofore been thoroughly exposed and the results are blatantly apparent in our inability to successfully engineer our lives without debt. Fractional reserve banking has provided for the theft of the life blood of our nation.
Compounding the problem is the fact that the world is no longer capable of sustaining economic expansion. We are beginning to witness emerging nations, like China and India sucking up natural resources at a rate that is way past rechargeable. We are entering a period of civilization where the keyword is sustainability, not growth.
The debasement of our currency continues with abandon.The purchasing power of the dollar is quickly eroding. It is down 30% in the last three years. Conversely, the value of gold is up 30% in the last three years. Because the dollar is the reserve currency of world, every commodity, from rice to timber, from oil to precious metals, will continue to rise, priced in dollars.
The U.S.A. is currently breaking all records for the longest period of time that a nation's economy has endured after abandoning the gold standard. Our country has been foreclosed on in the past, and its just about to be foreclosed on again. It's just a matter of time. The "endgame" is near.
" I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." -- Thomas Jefferson -- The Debate Over The Re Charter Of The Bank Bill, (1809)
The last thing that the powers that are engineering the devaluation of the dollar want to happen is for the world to wake up to the fact that precious metals represent un-inflatable money. Both gold and silver are rising in price. This rise is currently fueled mostly by the dollar's demise. When the resulting "demand panic" kicks in, and it will very soon, the value of precious metals will "go ballistic." Oil is already being affected by "demand panic." It's price is rising in all currencies, not just the dollar.
It is my view, (and one that is shared by a great many others), that the failure of our current monetary system is eminent. The purpose of this examination has been to "wake you up", and make you aware of the facts that support my take on things. Hopefully it has increased your respect for the intrinsic value of precious metals. From an economic standpoint, gold and silver will lend heartily to our salvation. Gold and silver will soon regain their positions as the anchors of an honest monetary system. The market will demand it, and the "powers that be" will have no choice but to let the market have its way.
The presence of gold and silver in your portfolio will insure that you will emerge from the abyss with your capital intact. There is still time for you to reallocate a portion of your equity into the commodity sector, including gold and silver bullion, and gold and silver mining stocks. This move could well provide you with an unequaled measure of security. The gold standard is part of our Constitutional legacy. The subjugation of the Constitution is the root of all economic evils. If enough of us get together on this, we might be able to "Right the Republic". Very soon, as early as next year, a lot of people will be glad they held gold and silver.
Its not what you don't know that will screw you up, it's what you know that is wrong. The spin you hear from the mainstream media is intended to mislead you. Open your eyes and face the future. If you leave your head in the sand and ignore it, you are only leaving your butt exposed for the world to kick. This all may sound like gloom and doom, but when you get a handle on what is going to happen, you will have a future filled with opportunity. Fortune favors the Informed.

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I've written many times about the chronic shortage of physical silver. This has now moved into the gold market.

Gold is Going a Lot Higher The shortages in the retail bullion market continue to intensify and are spreading to a variety of bullion products. The FT and Reuters report overnight that the US Mint has now "temporarily" suspended the sale of the popular Gold Buffalo coins (1 ozt) due to them not being able to keep up with unprecedented demand. The FT reports that "the shortage of gold coins is the latest sign of investors seeking a safe haven into bullion amid Wall Street woes. Gold prices this week surged above $900 an ounce, up about 20 per cent from its level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers."Retail demand is extremely robust as evidenced in shortages of gold and silver coins and bars internationally, but particularly in the US, India and in Asia. The US and Canadian government mints have not been able to keep up with demand for their legal tender bullion coins and the world's largest gold refinery, Rand Refinery, in South Africa was cleared out of their entire inventory of Krugerrands in one order by an anonymous Swiss buyer - http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001uZ2pCvZBz3eEE9Uv_vsozCRtEgr3E6V44a628SObLs_Ltuzd8gFlSvsXGfY7TjXTflM9mI7ApBo7CB-PcMFYpcWTQByOEewadhx-ATx4rNgsyCowEALyD3ikQCRfLCs9yQtVA9AxnyXmmu6XX0jmg_u90uscCT7Tx7JHJm8UxEcNeKQohWK6SLBAcwZ9x1RBuXrtyIfD02_tWgwaZLmcyvpogYO4Ucur.Premiums on nearly all gold and silver bullion products continue to rise significantly. Some premiums are actually increasing on a daily basis. Gold and Silver Investments are now paying a wholesale premium of 4.5% over spot for Krugerrands in volume, up from 3.2% two weeks ago and up from near spot or melt value a year ago.Some of the largest wholesalers in the US have no stock left of silver bullion coins (Eagles and Maples) and silver bullion bars (1, 10 and 100 ozt) and are running low on 90% and 40% silver bags ($1000 face value worth of the actual silver coins used as currency in the US pre 1965). Increasingly there are delivery delays on a swathe of bullion products including on older European coins like British sovereigns. Some wholesalers are not just talking about delays of a few weeks but delivery delays into 2009 on certain products. These shortages are leading to premiums going up sharply on all bullion products . Some large wholesale bullion dealers have assigned and appointed a dedicated person to monitor pricing and raise premiums as required in accordance with lack of supply and rising demand.The confluence of supply and demand, macroeconomic, inflation and systemic factors is leading to extremely bullish conditions for the gold market - probably even more bullish than in the 1970s when gold rose some 3,000% from $35 to over $850 in just 9 years.

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This weeks featured interview covers a broad range of topics from precious metal history, the root causes of the current financial mess & some amazing projections for the long term price of silver.

Click here to download

Enjoy

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Many people often say to me bullion pays no interest so I prefer cash. The Keynesians have spent almost 40 years of well oiled propaganda positioning gold as a non interest bearing investment relic.

Lets examine the facts:

  • Interest is a payment or "rent" on money lent or borrowed to compensate for loss of purchasing power or opportunity cost.
  • The loss of purchasing power is measured by inflation.
  • We all know government estimates of inflation at around 4% are lies (probably closer to 8%) but lets use them anyway.
  • Today you can get about 7% in a Commbank term deposit.
  • The interest is taxable so using a rate of 40%, your real return at 4% inflation is almost zero.
  • If we apply the real world inflation rate of 8% you are losing about 4% after tax

The loss of purchasing power of paper currency is best demonstrated by some simple and observable facts:

Prior to 1971 a family financial structure was dramatically different:

Dad could work a blue collar 40hr per week job and mum could stay home and raise the kids but they could still afford a Sydney house with a small 10 year mortgage. They owned one car outright and paid cash for the annual beach holiday. Kids schooling, pensions and healthcare were government funded. Life was simple.

Fast forward to 2008:

Dad and mum are working 60 hr weeks. A 30 year mortgage buys a suburban box 1hr 20 mins from CBD. Both cars are fully financed, the annual holiday is paid on credit card, self funded childcare and education, personal super contributions and private healthcare. Life is crazy.

This is inflation........the loss of your purchasing power.

Why has this happened?

1971 is the year that the US dollar replaced gold as the worlds reserve currency. The spending discipline enforced by the gold standard no longer remained. The US dollar was now backed by nothing other than faith, a promise to pay. All currencies would now be measured in US dollars, meaning gold was effectively replaced by the US dollar as the global monetary check and balance.

The printing presses have been running 24 x 7 for 37 years now. The supply of money with nothing backing it is acting as a hidden tax for every citizen. It has turned entire countries of net savers into net debtors with no hope of repayment. This is why Joe sixpack, the factory worker in 1970, enjoyed a better standard of living than most people today – inflation through paper currency debasement.

This concept is nothing new. In Roman times Emperors struggling to fund the expanding war effort debased gold and silver coins by slicing edges or mixing cheaper alloys into production. History is littered with examples of how governments swindle money from its people.

Looking at recent events with the massive financial global bailouts (they are not just in US) the printing press spigots have been ratcheted to a level never seen before. In fact today the use of digital dollars means they don't even need to waste paper to increase the money supply. Governments call it liquidity injections, emergency funding, temporary loans, asset swaps etc etc but it all means something very simple: your money is being debased at record pace and inflation is going to accelerate to unimaginable levels as a result.

We are headed for a global currency crisis, hyperinflation ala Germany & Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the masses will learn the concept "what is money" the hard way. Their digital and paper dollars will become worth less and the kings of currency, gold and silver, will resume their rightful place as the only real money.

Still care about gold not paying interest relative to cash?????



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Less than you think!

In the world there are currently somewhere between 120,000 and 140,000 tonnes of gold 'above ground'. To visualise this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 metres (about three metres short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced.

Divided amongst the population of the world there are about 23 grams per person, about 1.2 cubic centimetres each. This equates to about $250 - $350 worth per person on Earth, depending on the current price.

What's it worth?

The value of that short tennis court sized cube is about $3.6 trillion. This compares to the US government's sovereign debt of $11 trillion, which until 1971 was part-backed by gold. The US Gold Reserve is just over 8,000 tonnes - which is about 6% of the total gold ever mined. It is worth about $200 billion, or 1.8% of the US national debt.

$3.6 trillion is about one fifteenth of the paper based international bond markets, which themselves, at about $55 trillion, are about two thirds composed of western government sovereign debt almost all of which has appeared, co-incidentally, since 1971 and the declared supremacy of paper money, which was what allowed governments to borrow without caution. The total gold content of the world would pay - at current values - about 7% of the international bond market's sovereign debt. But of course 75% of the world's gold is not available to governments - being held privately as jewellery, bullion and coin. In fact only about 30,000 tonnes, about 1% of the world's sovereign debt is what is held in central bank gold reserves.

Meanwhile the entire gold stock of the world - including the privately held bulk - is much less than one half of one percent of the underwritten risk in the global financial derivatives markets.

The world has placed absolute trust in paper currency denominated assets. Investors have shunned gold for about twenty years while the notional value of paper based financial assets has exploded.

Who owns the gold?

About 30,000 tonnes of the world's gold [20-25% of above ground inventory] is held in central bank vaults.

Major Central Bank Reserves (2000)

Nations & institutions

Reserves (Tonnes)

USA

8139

Germany

3469

IMF

3217

France

3025

Switzerland

2590

Italy

2452

The totals for other central banks tail off rapidly after these main holders. Most only hold a few hundred tonnes, and together they make up a bit over 30,000 tonnes in all.

The rest is held by individuals in the form of gold jewellery [approx 70,000 - 80,000 tonnes], coin and privately held bullion [combined at 20,000 tonnes].

90% of the gold above ground has been mined since the start of the California gold rush in 1848. Modern power machinery and chemicals have steadily lowered the price at which gold can be extracted. The average production cost of the world's biggest producer - South Africa - is about $238 per troy ounce. 1997 industry estimates by the Federal Reserve Board suggested an average production cost worldwide of $300 per ounce.

Gold still underground

Where it is known about with reasonable confidence, and can be extracted economically, un-mined gold appears on the books of mining companies as 'reserves'. There remains as reserves about 40% of the total of gold above ground - i.e about 50,000 tonnes. South Africa has 50% of the world's known stock of un-mined gold.

Inelastic supply

Gold is difficult to find in commercial quantities. It also takes time, typically 5 years, and plenty of money to bring mines into production. In this sense the supply side of the gold equation is relatively constant.

One of the features of this is that boom times encourage investment which takes a considerable time to work through to production and - eventually - to worked out mines. After a boom, when investment decisions may be made on over-inflated expectations of ultimately achievable prices, there is a tendency to subsequent overproduction and poor prices for a considerable period.

The gold price boom of 1979/80 resulted in steadily increasing production all over the world from a stable base of 1200 tonnes annually to a peak of above 2600 tonnes in 1999. All major producing countries except South Africa substantially increased production in this period.

Production then levelled out and started to dip slightly, as mines were exhausted and poorer mines shut. Also the uninspiring gold market encouraged a decrease in exploration which now means there are a lower number of new mines coming into production than is expected to be required by the market.

Inflation of the gold supply

Nonetheless for the time being gold is still being mined and refined at the rate of almost 2,600 tonnes per year. Thus the world supply of above ground gold is increasing - or inflating - at just over 2% annually. At current rates the gold supply is growing the under-sized tennis court cube at about 12 centimetres a year. It will reach a full tennis court sized cube in about 20 years time.

Physical gold quantities

The following table compares kilogram quantities of gold with monetary values, spatial volumes, and meaningful human measurements, to get a feel for the numbers.

Kilograms

Value @ 780$ / Oz

Litres

How much

0.008

$200

0.00041

A British sovereign coin

0.031

$780

0.00161

US Eagle / Canadian Maple coin

0.100

$2,508

0.00518

0.500

$12,538

0.02591

1

$25,078

0.0518

1 kilo - a golf ball sized sphere

2

$50,156

0.1036

3

$75,232

0.1554

4

$100,308

0.2073

5

$125,386

0.2591

6

$150,462

0.311

A can of 'Coke'

7

$175,540

0.363

8

$200,618

0.415

9

$225,684

0.466

10

$250,772

0.518

12

$312,000

0.645

A standard 400 oz bullion bar

20

$501,444

1.04

A litre bottle of water

50

$1,357,845

2.59

100

$2,507,716

5

A good sized deposit box

1,000

$25,077,160

52

10,000

$250,771,802

518

Half a cubic metre - fits in a corner of a small bank vault.

100,000

$2,507,166,025

5,181

1,000,000

$25,771,160,000

51,813

A small living room - and more than twice Britain's gold reserve.

8,139,000

$204,102,504,000

421,710

The US gold reserve fits into a town house. Fort Knox is mostly empty space!

30,000,000

$752,320,190,000

1,554,404

The world's total financial reserve of gold (central banks + significant global financial institutions)

100,000,000

$2,507,166,048,000

5,181,347

The approximate total of all privately held jewellery, bullion and coin

140,000,000

$3,501,802,468,000

7,253,886

All the gold in the world - A block with edges 3 metres short of a standard sized tennis court.

$11,000,000,000,000

The current US sovereign debt (which excludes future pension and health obligations, none of which have been reserved against in the public accounts)



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This podcast is a must listen for any bullion investor. It highlights extraordinary demand and puzzling discrepancy between physical and paper bullion.

Feel fee to post comments after you have listened to the podcast.

Click here to download the podcast

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Gold & silver had the biggest one day moves in history last night. This tells you how precarious the global financial system is right now. Whilst I believe central banks and governments will stem the stock market slides shortly with massive rate cuts and liquidity injections, one thing is now certain – Gold & Silver are going much higher. Effectively to save the financial system and the stock markets, unbelievable amounts of paper currency must be printed by all governments, not just US. This is massively inflationary. We are on the cusp of a global hyperinflation where paper currencies become worth less. All the deflation talk in the mainstream press is true for leveraged assets ie any asset with debt/leverage will deflate but real assets (gold, silver, wheat, oil etc will rise). I have heard this called “U-flation”. Anything you need to buy is going up and anything you own or want to sell is going down.

Triple witching (options/futures expiry) occurs on Friday so I expect wild swings in both directions for most assets in the next few days. Now is not the time to panic sell, nor is it the time to make bold bets on anything. This volatility is best left to professionals. You will have ample time to enter or exit in calmer waters over the coming months. After this week, I actually expect stabilisation in markets through the US elections on November 20th. The Bush administration is working very hard with Band-aid solutions to ensure total collapse doesn’t occur on his watch. Next President of the US is not a job any sane person would want. Unfortunately the short term bandaids make this a much bigger problem in the end.

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Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most in six years on prospects the government will formulate a ``permanent'' plan to shore up financial markets, while regulators and pension funds took steps to curb bets against banks and brokerages.

As a long term bullion investor headlines such as this make me very nervous. What they are really doing is manipulating markets. As I mentioned yesterday I expect stabilisation in stock markets through the November US elections due to desperate government interventions. This will provide better exit points for any toxic financial stocks you may still own. Whilst continued money printing bail out are incredibly bullish for gold & silver in the medium term, I suspect another takedown in the near term. Technically I'd like to see a retest of the recent lows. This would create a double bottom, a very bullish technical formation. This would be the time to back up the truck.

Another disturbing piece of news last night was the performance of Newmont Mining. This gold stock and often provides an early signal for the gold price movement the following day. Newmont was down over 8% last night. Given it is also triple witching (options, futures & options on futures expiry) I expect major volatility.

I repeat my message from the last few days...... BE PATIENT. Buy gold & silver in quiet times on price pullbacks, never chase the rallies. For now sit back and wait for governments and central banks to give you an early Christmas present, discounted gold & silver bullion.

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One of the most common questions we get at Bullionmark is should I buy 1000oz bars or 1oz coins? Logic suggests you should buy maximum number of ounces as close to spot as possible. However in most cases this approach does not maximise your returns.

When investing in silver you must consider that you are warehousing silver today for sale at a higher price sometime in the future. So deciding the target market for the future sale has a pretty important influence in your purchasing decisions today right?

If an investment mania in silver occurs it will be the average Joe who will bid up the price for your warehoused stocks. Average Joe is going to pay the biggest premium for bullion coins because it is recognisable, real money, transferrable, trustworthy. Most of those qualities do not apply to large bars. You are an early entrant into this investment opportunity, just be smart about your choices today and you will do well. This is a business not just a fun hobby, so think clearly about your exit plans. Think about who will buy your silver in future and plan your mix accordingly.

As an example right 1oz silver coins are selling at over 100% premium to spot up from 50% 6 months ago and 25% in 2007. It is not your buying price thats critical its demand potential and selling price (margin) that counts. Coins have and will continue to provide the best margin potential and greatest demand. Alternatively if you buy a 1000oz bar today I pay $15.50 but only get $13 in resale a 16% decline versus spot. Why because the only demand is from a dealer who has to make his own margin at your expense. I know paying such high prices over spot is somewhat counterintuitive but owning the products that will have the greatest demand is the best route to profitability.

  1. Coins are portable for trading goods & services and resale to joe sixpack at some date in the future
  2. Mid sized bars are a good convenient store of value easily go in safety deposit boxes or safes. Are reasonably easy to trade with Joe sixpack if branded by recognisable mint.
  3. 1000oz bars are for your families store of wealth & security if you can securely store them and transport when necessary. Strategically safe and accessible storage is critical, but very expensive and complex. Due to a limited target maket they are difficult to offload and likely to be the worst retun on investment

Whilst I support the quest to accumulate as many ounces as you can afford, make sure they are profitable ounces.

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Whilst this chart is a few years out of date it clearly indicates in the very long run how undervalued silver is in absolute terms and relative to gold. Click on the chart for a larger view
The historical high for silver was set 531 years ago in 1477, topping at (using the purchasing power of 1998 dollars) a princely $806 an ounce. By comparison, the price of silver less than $15 an ounce today, and was only about $5 an ounce in 1998, after having bottomed at under $4 an ounce in 1992.Now, fast-forward to today as our 2008 dollars, which have fallen 50% in purchasing power since 1998, means that the all-time high price of silver, set in 1477, now stands at $1,012 an ounce, measured in the buying power of 2008 dollars! Over a thousand dollars an ounce! For silver! In case you haven't noticed, we're unmistakably coming off the lows of a 530-year bear market in silver and, theoretically, entering a long bull market, which ought to be exciting to people who have a lot riding on silver gaining so much in price (me), or even just keep up with this kind of thing, like, for instance, Israel Friedman, writing at InvestmentRarities.com, who notes that there are 5 billion ounces of gold sitting around someplace in the world, but that there are only 2.5 billion ounces of silver, even though 5 times as much silver is mined every year than gold.Therefore, silver is being consumed at prodigious rates, which is why Mr. Friedman says, "Silver is needed to maintain and improve future standards of living. Gold is needed for luxury and emotional reasons. Silver is for the optimist, gold for the pessimist."In that optimistic vein, Mr. Friedman says, "I honestly believe that silver must eventually sell for five to ten times what the price of gold may be." .

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Consider the following. As gold and silver prices started to plummet on July 14th, surging physical demand for gold and silver continued to lead gold and silver prices markedly lower. For the first time in history, record demand in a commodity was helpless to stem plummeting prices and in fact, contributed to further price declines. In July, India bought 22 tonnes of gold. In August, according to Reuters, India increased its gold purchases by more than 350%, buying more than 100 tonnes of gold.
This figure also represented a 56% increase in purchases when compared to purchases during the same month from a year prior. In Dubai, demand surged as well.
“We are definitely witnessing a surge in demand for gold in Dubai and physical shortages have been reported by many dealers,” said Ian MacDonald, the Dubai Multi Commodity Center’s executive director for gold and precious metals. “We are also seeing demand being driven by currency concerns in the region as many investors perceive the precious metal as one of the few strong currencies.”
Gold jewelry sales in Abu Dhabi soared 300 percent in volume and almost 250 percent in value in August from a year earlier after the metal dropped to nine-month lows, the emirate’s industry group said on Monday.
“It was the best month the market has seen in almost 30 years and it compensated for any drops we have seen earlier this year,” Abu Dhabi Gold and Jewelry Group Chairman Tushar Patni told Reuters.“We had never expected (emphasis mine) that if gold fell below $800 an ounce we would see a 300 percent increase in volume and 250 percent in value, especially as many buyers are abroad on holiday.”
In the United States, the stories were the same. Many gold and silver bullion and coin dealers reported record sales in August and shortages of supply. I could quote fifty other stories similar to the ones above, but for the sake of brevity, I will not. Global sales of gold and silver would have to be at record levels in August for gold and silver prices to be pushed much higher for that month, and all preliminary indications are that global sales in August for gold and silver were indeed at record numbers. So how can it be that record demand and sales in the physical gold and silver markets would cause gold to plummet from a price of $910 an ounce at the beginning of August to less than $750 an ounce, and silver to plummet from a price of close to $18 an ounce at the beginning of August all the way down to almost $10 an ounce?
When this inexplicable anomaly was pointed out (at least inexplicable according to the supposedly irrefutable Law of Supply and Demand), gold and silver analysts employed by Wall Street to spread disinformation responded only to stories of shortages being reported in the United States and did not address record sales of physical gold in various countries in the Middle East and in Asia. They responded to reported U.S. shortages of bullion and coins by stating that dealers had supply but were simply not being honest about their supply numbers because they did not want to sell any more stock at such depressed prices. This certainly could have been a very reasonable and logical explanation that adequately explains some of the shortages that were reported by gold and silver dealers. However, this was not “mystery solved” as these demagogues employed by Wall Street claimed.
During this Correction, Gold & Silver Steady or Much Higher Many Days in Asia, Down Markedly Lower by Close of New York Markets
How can record sales, the strongest in 30 years, and shrinking supply in other regions of the world like the Middle East and India, cause prices of gold and silver to plummet steeply as well? Clearly, since price is a function of supply and demand, rising record demand for gold in India and the Middle Eastern markets should have stopped the downward slide in gold and silver markets dead in its tracks and led the price higher again. And indeed this is exactly what happened. But it happened only in the futures markets in Asia. Last week MarketWatch reported a story that gold experienced one of its worst months ever in this bull run because August had not one day where gold closed higher in price; however, this article only told half the story as the media so often does. Gold experienced many days in August were it closed higher in Asia and significantly higher, often piling on gains of $5 to $10 an ounce. These gains were only lost once London markets closed and New York markets opened; only then, were gains quickly sold off and then transformed into deep losses within a span of 24 hours.
If one constructs the 24-hour gold and silver charts for every day during this correction, one will discover an overwhelming amount of days when gold and silver were significantly higher in futures markets in Asia, but then were sold off harshly at nearly the exact same time (within a 30 minute time frame) when London markets closed and New York markets opened. How could this have happened? Simple. The price for gold and silver that you see plastered all over financial tickers everyday is established in the paper futures markets and not in physical markets where REAL gold and silver actually exchange hands. In the futures markets, only 1% of all futures contracts are closed out with actual delivery of the physical commodity. Instead 99% of all futures contracts are closed out with the purchase of another paper contract. In the case of gold and silver, futures contracts represent digital bytes of gold and silver flying around in a paper market, not real ounces of gold and silver that exist in the physical market. Thus it is entirely possible to utilize this discrepancy to create two entirely different prices for the same commodity. In other words, if not properly regulated, futures markets provide a gateway to manufacture massively fraudulent prices non-reflective of the buying and selling volumes that are occurring in the physical markets!
Two Parallel Markets For Gold & Silver: Paper Markets & Future Markets
Thus, the world can end up with two parallel markets that act differently: a papers market for gold and silver and a physical markets for gold and silver that establish significantly different prices for the same commodity over short periods of time, odd as this may seem (I say short periods of time because unless perpetually manipulated, free markets will eventually work out such massive distortions over time). The recent actions that were coordinated in the futures markets for gold and silver beginning on July 14th would most likely have been impossible to replicate in the physical world of gold and silver. To any veteran investor in gold and silver, the manufacturing of this correction was as plainly transparent as a two-ton boulder falling out of a clear blue sky. Though I won’t discuss the other mounds of evidence that explain how this correction was manufactured, these other specifics deal with large U.S. institutions that piled on huge short positions in the futures markets for gold and silver in an incredibly compressed period of time around July 15th.
Again, the gold and silver analysts paid by Wall Street to spread misinformation spoke out against the manipulation theories, simply stating that the dollar was overdue for a bounce and gold and silver markets were overdue for a correction. I have stated multiple times myself over the years that bulls never rise straight higher and will correct, and that bears never plummet straight downward and will experience bear market rallies. This much is true. Still, what transpired starting this past mid-July was far beyond the realm of a free-market inspired U.S. dollar bear market rally and a free-market induced gold and silver bull market correction. The meteoric rise of the U.S. dollar since July 15th and the panic inducing slide in gold and silver prices reeks of manipulation and not a natural free-market rally and correction for many reasons.
For instance, try explaining this. I know for a fact that certain gold coins that were selling in the low $700 range when the price of gold bullion was at $680 an ounce a couple of years ago were still being priced at more than $1,100 by gold coin dealers even when gold slid all the way down to $750 an ounce during this current correction. When I inquired as to why the prices of these gold coins had not also slid to $780 or so (as would have been dictated by the spot market price of gold), but were instead still selling for well over $1,100 a coin, the dealers answered that demand, not the spot price of gold in the futures market, was setting the prices of these coins. Since demand was off the charts, the prices did not reflect the monumental drops in price in the futures markets. When I checked the market for silver coins, I discovered the same massive disconnect between prices set in the physical markets for silver and in the silver futures markets (that only comprise “paper” silver). Silver coins were selling at prices sometimes 60% to 70% higher than what would have been indicated by the spot price of silver determined in the futures markets.
Last month it was clear that the Law of Supply and Demand was dead for gold and silver markets. Soaring physical demand for gold and silver were not factored at all into the prices set in the PAPER gold and silver futures markets. Incredibly, soaring physical demand created a greater acceleration of losses in the prices in the PAPER gold and silver markets. One way to interpret this disconnect between physical and paper gold and silver markets that clearly happened last month is this: If a bushel of corn were selling in the September futures market for $1.40, but if you were to go to a farm in Anytown, USA and had to pay $3.10 for a bushel of corn, what would you conclude was the REAL price of corn? This is how you can determine the real price of silver and gold today. Look to the physical markets, not the paper markets, for the real price of gold and silver. Who cares what the paper futures markets are stating as the spot price of silver, if I still have to pay 60% more than this price when buying silver coins in the real world? The price is simply what I have to pay for the real physical silver, period.
The Usual Suspects
The most likely culprits of this manipulation are all members of the U.S. President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (the SEC, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Treasury, and the U.S. Federal Reserve). A massive disconnect between the price of gold and silver in physical markets and the price in paper futures markets, of the extent that happened last month, either means that the Law of Supply and Demand has just been proven to be invalid, or that massive fraudulent manipulation just occurred. I will let you make this conclusion. However, let me be clear that the evidence of manipulation was so overwhelming this time that it was not just the usual suspects, including yours truly, voicing these opinions. It must have greatly dismayed the mainstream analysts that try to cover up evidence of manipulation in commodity markets, particularly in gold, silver, and oil, that a member of the mainstream investment community attributed the recent gold and silver decline to manipulation.
It also must have dismayed these same analysts that four U.S. Senators who are key members of Congressional energy committees recently stated that the Commodities Futures Trading Commission “obviously knew that underlying data used to prepare the interim report was seriously flawed.” (emphasis mine) (The report referenced by the Senators was a key report distributed to U.S. Congress days before a legislative vote to close commodity trading loopholes that allow massive manipulation of commodity markets. The report stated supply and demand was solely responsible for the recent run up in oil prices to $147 a barrel. The seriously flawed data that was contained in the report, after it was corrected, demonstrated that manipulation was responsible for the run up in oil prices. Based upon the deliberately falsified data provided by the CFTC (the Senator’s words, not mine), Congress voted to keep the loopholes open. Read the whole story here).
Don Coxe, chairman and chief strategist of Harris Investment Management in Chicago, one of the top respected investment groups in the United States, called this recent manipulation of gold and silver markets that broke the Law of Supply and Demand a “brilliant” plan executed by the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. My reply to Mr. Coxe? Let’s not get carried away. If I was in charge of the U.S. Treasury and could direct the CFTC, the SEC and various Wall Street firms through the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, I could have pulled this plan off in my sleep. If the plan was executed in the manner that Mr. Coxe speculates, there was nothing brilliant about it. Let’s call the plan for what it was. Fraud and a shameful dismantling of free markets and capitalism. Plain and simple.
But in today’s world fraud is the name of the game. When the Law of Supply and Demand was broken in the gold and silver markets in August, for a comparable story of similar magnitude to exist in the scientific world, the Law of Gravity would have to be disproven. If it was reported that in California, a man ran down the street, threw his hands in the air and flew for a length of 200 meters while 10 meters from the ground, don’t you think that reporters would be scrambling to report this story? Yet gold and silver markets just proved the Law of Supply and Demand to be no longer relevant in August 2008, and ZERO members of the mainstream financial press deemed this story to be newsworthy.
Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) committed fraud for years and nearly triggered the collapse of the entire U.S. housing market. When their bailouts finally became necessary, people that ingested the force-fed spin that this bailout was “for their own good” and don’t understand the implications, cheered the fraud that allowed the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac CEOs to retain their tens of millions in salary and bonuses they collected from engineering this fraud. Furthermore, for their roles as architects of this fraud, Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron and Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd are to respectively receive a severance payout of approximately $6.3 million and $7.3 million, respectively. When Stan O’Neal and Chuck Prince were respectively ousted from Merrill Lynch (MER) and Citigroup (C) for their terrible leadership and participation in creating the most massive financial crisis the U.S. has seen in decades, what were their rewards for leading investors of their stock into financial ruin? A $160 million and a $40 million golden parachute, respectively.
The reason this current story is so important is the following: The very acceptance and nonchalant reactions to this fraud by billions of people worldwide poses an equally serious threat to the health of the U.S. and global economy as the actual perpetrators of these fraudulent actions. Though I’ve never asked any of my readers to take action before, I urge you this time to email the link to this article at my investment blog, theUndergroundInvestor, to every single person that you know that has ever had so much as a ruble, a dollar, a peso, a real, a Swiss franc, a Euro or a pound invested in stock markets. Knowledge is power, and only knowledgeable persons can prevent these same shenanigans from happening in the future. As this financial crisis deepens and we have only seen the very beginning of it, the intensity of disinformation campaigns will increase at an exponential rate. To solve the crisis will require aware and knowledgeable investors, and masses of them. Thus, we must begin spreading awareness today and not a day later.
The Likely End Game: Re-Capitalization of the U.S. Financial Sector at the Expense of the Individual Investor
I’ll conclude this article with my theory of why this manipulative scheme was executed in the gold and silver markets, for I have not seen another analyst give any credence to this theory as of today’s date. This sell-off in gold and silver and the U.S. dollar rally wasn’t engineered just to stem the record rate at which foreign central banks were dumping U.S. Treasuries (another huge story that somehow the entire mainstream financial press somehow missed). Furthermore, this scheme wasn’t hatched solely because it was a necessary step to save the global financial markets as Don Coxe speculated. Both are fine reasons, but ultimately, unlikely to fully explain why this scheme was hatched in July. With the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the failure of Merrill Lynch (just announced Monday), the likely failure of Lehman Brothers (LEH), and the likely failure of a huge U.S. financial institution on the imminent horizon, all these failures are about to place a serious squeeze on the already hemorrhaging balance sheets of some of the world’s largest financial institutions. With foreign interest in increasing ownership in these institutions quickly dissipating and weak share prices unable to translate secondary offerings of stock into significant amounts of capital, some of the largest financial institutions were absolutely desperate to find a channel in which to raise significant amounts of capital (not hundreds of millions, but billions of dollars) very, very quickly. What just happened in the gold, silver and oil markets accomplished this goal, and thus may have been integral in preventing a global financial collapse.
Let me explain. During this recent gold and silver correction, gold and silver markets were higher, and significantly higher in Asia before drastically turning significantly lower in New York almost on a daily basis. The creation of these huge arbitrage opportunities could have been exploited by large financial institutions to reap billions in profits in an incredibly condensed period of time. The type of arbitrage opportunities that existed during this recent correction in gold and silver was absolutely enormous. Unprecedented 2% to 5% swings in the price of gold and silver bullion from their highs in Asian markets to their lows in New York markets happened time and time and time and time and time and time and time again during this recent correction (if you were unaware of this action or don’t believe me, simply search out the 24-hour charts for gold and silver for the entire month of August and you will be absolutely dumbfounded from what you will discover). These swings in prices were so enormous that daily swing trades in futures markets, given these arbitrage opportunities, could have produced hundreds of millions of dollars of profit in a single 24-hour trading day. During the past few weeks, these arbitrage opportunities may have produced profits in the tens of billions of dollars, if not more, for just a small handful of firms.
If I were a large financial institution with a critically hemorrhaging balance sheet due to massive losses created from insane foolish and risky bets on MBS (mortgage backed securities) and CDOs (collateralized debt obligations), and I wanted the quickest way to recapitalize my balance sheet, how would I do it? Through gross manipulation of commodity markets, in particular the gold, silver, oil and agriculture markets. Of course, I would need the help of certain regulatory agencies to achieve this and wouldn’t be able to accomplish this on my own, but I’m going to speculate that this is exactly what just happened. This correction was not only just about shoring up the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, but also about recapitalizing Wall Street and huge banking institutions. Though I haven’t covered the oil and agriculture futures markets, there is more than ample evidence that the same thing has occurred in these markets as of late as well (and again, the evidence is blatant enough that U.S. Senators have demanded investigations into much of the curious behavior I have delineated in this article). Again, if you are someone interested in putting an end to the regulatory and government schemes that continue to reward CEOs for their incompetence, dishonesty, and disloyalty to shareholders, and you care about the future of free markets, I urge you to forward this article to everyone you know.